At the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), we publish an annual report looking at the trends in the labour market for teachers. In 2026, the overall picture is improving. However, important challenges remain and more are emerging…
Falling numbers
The number of primary school teachers in state schools started to decline in 2021/22 and there has been a drop each year since then. This trend is linked to a fall in the number of primary pupils as the average birth rate across the UK dropped (and continues to drop). All else being equal, fewer pupils mean the school system needs fewer teachers.
Forecasts suggest the fall in the number of pupils in primary schools is likely to accelerate over the coming years. Nationally, it’s likely that there will be a drop of around five per cent in the number of pupils between 2023/24 and 2027/28, which will continue to reduce demand for primary school teachers.
Some areas of the country will see smaller reductions while others will see larger. But managing falling budgets will be a key challenge for many schools over the next few years.
Hitting recruitment targets
While pupil numbers may be falling, the education system still needs to recruit more teachers each year to replace those leaving the profession.
The Department for Education’s (DfE’s) main measure of teacher recruitment compares the number of postgraduate trainees in initial teacher training (ITT) to a target that it calculates based on expected system need.
For example, in the 2025/26 training year, there were around 9,800 primary teaching trainees; significantly more than the target of 7,650. As such, the target was exceeded by nearly 30 per cent.
This should mean there is a good pool of candidates for vacancies in most areas, although there may be pockets of the country that struggle to attract high-quality candidates.
Looking ahead, emerging data from applications so far this year suggests primary recruitment will probably be above target again for the 2026/27 training year.
Young graduates may be more attracted to teaching because alternative options in the wider labour market are being squeezed. We saw a similar effect during the pandemic.
There has also been an improvement in teacher retention in primary schools, which is likely due to a range of factors. Teachers’ pay has, on average, increased by more than inflation over the last few years. And whilst growth in teachers’ salaries has lagged behind wider earnings over the long-term, it has made up a little bit of ground.
This will have improved the competitiveness of teacher pay relative to other jobs, and encouraged more teachers to stay.
But pay isn’t the only factor. NFER’s analysis of data from various surveys suggests that workload pressures across the state sector continued to ease slightly in 2024/25.
However, these improvements should not be overstated; many teachers still report having an excessive workload, and work longer weeks than comparable professions during term-time.
Challenges, old and new
Of course, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Whilst overall recruitment and retention data in the primary sector looks healthy, not all schools and teachers will recognise their experience in the national averages.
For example, we know that primary school vacancy and turnover rates are higher in schools with more disadvantaged pupils, increasing their reliance on supply staff. There will be geographic areas where recruiting staff is more challenging, too.
In a recent survey, half of senior leaders said they were still having difficulties with recruitment, which suggests a significant gap between schools feeling the squeeze and those seeing improvement, rather than a homogenous view across the UK. This proportion has come down since a similar survey in 2023, but is still high.
Looking forward, our report identified policy developments that could risk significantly increasing primary teacher workloads, which could in turn increase teacher exits.
Firstly, teachers will need to update schools’ teaching approaches and schemes of work when changes to the national curriculum are published in September 2027. Second, the government’s reforms to the system for children with SEND may increase the workload burden many teachers face.
Schools will be expected to create Individual Support Plans (ISPs) for pupils with SEND, in partnership with parents, and review them regularly. The government has said it will put support for teachers in place, but it remains to be seen what the net effect on workloads will be.
Both these changes will need to be carefully implemented – by government and by school leaders – to ensure they are not making teachers’ jobs unmanageable and leading to a rush for the door.
An ongoing battle
So, the overall view is mixed: research suggests the labour market for primary school teachers is in a relatively good place in 2026: nationally, recruitment is above target and exit rates are falling. On the other hand, many schools say they are still finding it difficult to recruit teachers.
Similarly, teachers’ workloads, while improving slightly, remain high. We must keep improving conditions in the face of existing and emerging pressures, while keeping teachers’ pay competitive, to ensure the progress made in recent years is not lost.
Michael Scott is senior economist at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER).
